Forecasting business conditions . t. The raw material statistics secured cover ten important commodities,as follows: 1. Winter wheat 6. Bituminous coal 2. Spring wheat 7. Anthracite coal 3. Com 8. Petroleum 4. Oats 9. Copper 5. Cotton 10. Zinc Crop statistics are issued at stated intervals by the Bureau of Marketsand Crop Estimates, U. S. Department of Agriculture, in which the con-dition of each of the above five crops is shown by a percentage of percentage figures, consequently, do not have to be corrected forlong range growth and seasonal variations. The mining statistics haveb
Forecasting business conditions . t. The raw material statistics secured cover ten important commodities,as follows: 1. Winter wheat 6. Bituminous coal 2. Spring wheat 7. Anthracite coal 3. Com 8. Petroleum 4. Oats 9. Copper 5. Cotton 10. Zinc Crop statistics are issued at stated intervals by the Bureau of Marketsand Crop Estimates, U. S. Department of Agriculture, in which the con-dition of each of the above five crops is shown by a percentage of percentage figures, consequently, do not have to be corrected forlong range growth and seasonal variations. The mining statistics havebeen corrected for growth, which is pronounced in the case of all five items;but not for seasonal variations, since monthly data covering a sufficientlylong period cannot at present be had. Figure 16 presents all ten series. CONSTRUCTING THE INDEX 43 -^-^^^^^--g+TJ^EcU^J-^ w;:eat. w. WHEAT, 5. OATS fc^f-^iiii ^ . ji^S:-frJV A^f ^,^ hxXV U~^[]J-^^^ ?yjj-^^~\-f^^=^^-^ r^ ^ -^ ^\J^^^^^^^=&3^^^^^^1^^^=^ COAL. A PETflOLEBB. A-/-- ^ ^lJ^~?^_^^V/^/-^?/-A/^v^^^ 03 04 05 06 07 08 03 10 II l^ 13 14 15 IG 17 IB 13 20 i> It Figure 16: Agriculture and Mining Statistics of ten leading products have here been combined to form the Agriculture andMining curve at the bottom. All statistical series have been reduced to a comparablebasis, as heretofore, and in plotting each the middle line of the three horizontal lines repre-sents normal, that above + and that below — 44 FORECASTING BUSINESS CONDITIONS The single curve at the bottom represents them combined, each series beingweighted according to its relative importance. * More than other commodities, grain crops depend upon elements outsidehuman control—weather conditions more particularly. Some investiga-tors, as Professor Moore, believe that cycles in business are due at bottomto favorable, or unfavorable, weather conditions. An interval of one ortwo years is required, however, before good or bad crops produce theirmaxi
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Keywords: ., bookcentury1900, bookdecade1920, booksubjectbusines, bookyear1922
