. The Cost of Policy Inaction: The case of not meeting the 2010 biodiversity target. The Baseline Scenario: Drivers Population The Baseline uses the "medium" population projection of the United Nations, which shows a stabilisation of the world population at around billion inhabitants by the middle of this century (UN, 2005). Almost all of this increase will be in developing countries (see Figure and Table ). The UN population projection is a "middle- ground" scenario with billion people in 2030, compared to the extremes of the IIASA probabilistic po
. The Cost of Policy Inaction: The case of not meeting the 2010 biodiversity target. The Baseline Scenario: Drivers Population The Baseline uses the "medium" population projection of the United Nations, which shows a stabilisation of the world population at around billion inhabitants by the middle of this century (UN, 2005). Almost all of this increase will be in developing countries (see Figure and Table ). The UN population projection is a "middle- ground" scenario with billion people in 2030, compared to the extremes of the IIASA probabilistic population projections, that range between and billion in 2030 (Lutz et al., 2004). Global population, baseline I | ROW â BRIC â â >--[-. 4000. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Figure World population, baseline Source: UN (2005) Table Population increase, baseline 1970-2000 % 43 2000-2030 2020-2050 North America 27 15 OECD Europe 17 5 -2 OECD Asia 27 0 -11 OECD Pacific 44 26 18 Brazil 72 34 15 Russia & Caucasus 15 -13 -16 South Asia 79 33 15 China region 47 14 -2 Middle East 156 74 42 Other Asia 84 49 26 Eastern Europe &. Central Asia 29 3 -7 Other Latin America & Caribbean 74 43 21 Africa 120 85 57 World 61 35 20 note: overlapping 30-year periods: 2000-2030 and 2020-2050 Source: UN (2005, 2006) Alterra-rapport 1718 63. Please note that these images are extracted from scanned page images that may have been digitally enhanced for readability - coloration and appearance of these illustrations may not perfectly resemble the original Braat, L. ten Brink, P. (eds. ) Contributions from: Bolt, K. and Walpole, M. , Consortium led by Alterra, inc. UNEP-WCMC. European Commission
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