. Hazard-rating systems in forest insect pest management : symposium proceedings, Athens, Georgia, July 31-August 1, 1980. Forest insects Biological control United States Congresses; Forest insects United States Analysis; Forest insects United States Management. The scenario for a 1,000,000-acre outbreak is depicted in figure 7. If stands with the largest value loss were treated first, at the economic optimum: You would treat 100,000 acres. Program cost = $3,000,000 Value saved = Benefit = $8,500,000 Benefit/Cost = = You would still lose $5,000,000 But, program cost plus loss would be
. Hazard-rating systems in forest insect pest management : symposium proceedings, Athens, Georgia, July 31-August 1, 1980. Forest insects Biological control United States Congresses; Forest insects United States Analysis; Forest insects United States Management. The scenario for a 1,000,000-acre outbreak is depicted in figure 7. If stands with the largest value loss were treated first, at the economic optimum: You would treat 100,000 acres. Program cost = $3,000,000 Value saved = Benefit = $8,500,000 Benefit/Cost = = You would still lose $5,000,000 But, program cost plus loss would be minimized—$3,000,000 + $5,000,000 = $8,000, 300 400 500 600 700 AREA TREATED (THOUSAND ACRES) Figure scenario for an out- break of 1,000,000 acres. Of course, decisions on gypsy moth control are based on more than the value of timber losses. Changes in stand con- dition and timber growth should be con- sidered. Also important are nontimber impacts on esthetic quality and the nui- sance of caterpillars in recreation areas and backyards. Moreover, an operational decision- making model must be able to help us de- termine not only how many forest stands to protect but also which ones. And it must be able to provide this information before the insect attacks. Techniques have been developed for predicting forest stand losses attributed to the gypsy moth. They can be used to estimate losses from easy-to-measure key characteristics of stand condition. These models must be used cautiously and with due regard for their limitations. As they have not been field tested, we do not know how well they would apply on a new fron- tier of infestation. Plans have been made to test them. of this analysis should add a bit more objectivity to the process. LITERATURE CITED Campbell, R. W., and R. J. Sloan. 1977. Forest stand responses to defoliation by the gypsy moth. 34 p. For. Sci. Monogr. 19. Gansner, D. A., and 0. W. Herrick. 1979. Forest stand losses to gypsy moth in the Poc
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