. Better fruit. Fruit-culture. 19^5 BETTER FRUIT Page 31 "Then, beginning with June, a niontlily estimate is made of the con- dition of the apple crop as a percentage of normal. These condition reports have been made to the department for the past quarter of a century or more. Last year for the first time the bureau interpreted its condition reports as a forecast of production, beginning with August and ending with November. These forecasts or estimates of produc- tion are based on the census. For in- stance, our system of reporting condi- tion as a percentage of normal has remained pract
. Better fruit. Fruit-culture. 19^5 BETTER FRUIT Page 31 "Then, beginning with June, a niontlily estimate is made of the con- dition of the apple crop as a percentage of normal. These condition reports have been made to the department for the past quarter of a century or more. Last year for the first time the bureau interpreted its condition reports as a forecast of production, beginning with August and ending with November. These forecasts or estimates of produc- tion are based on the census. For in- stance, our system of reporting condi- tion as a percentage of normal has remained practically the same since the work was started, so that the fig- ures for each year are strictly com- parable with those of any other year. The production in census years is known for each state. The monthly condition figures and the percentage of a full crop as estimated by this bureau are also known for the census years. If, therefore, at the close of the season the crop in 1909 was estimated to be per cent a full crop, and the total production for the United States as re- ported bv the census for that vear was 146,000,000 bushels, the full crop rep- resented by 100 per cent would equal 333,000,000 bushels. In the same man- ner the normal or full crop production of each state is computed. Of course the normal or full crop production of each state is changing constantly be- cause old orchards are dying out and new ones are being planted. These facts are taken into consideration in fixing the state normal each year. Knowing the normal or full crop for any state, it is a simple matter to fore- cast the prospective yield from the monthly estimates of condition. "The bureau has a number of checks for use in its system of estimating. Among the most useful are series of tables showing ten-year averages of condition reports by months, numbers of bearing and non-bearing trees, yields and prices. Practically all of these ten-year average tables of condition reports show a relativ
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