. Compendium of meteorology. Meteorology. 850 WEATHER FORECASTING from physics and mathematics, but it was only after extended programs of experimental work had been carried out that the subjects progressed independently and produced the astounding developments which have occurred in the last century. A continual succession of experimentation, followed by new theory to explain the results obtained, and then a new period of experi- mentation, has characterized the development of most of the physical sciences. Unfortunately, meteorology is not in the same position because it is impossible to con
. Compendium of meteorology. Meteorology. 850 WEATHER FORECASTING from physics and mathematics, but it was only after extended programs of experimental work had been carried out that the subjects progressed independently and produced the astounding developments which have occurred in the last century. A continual succession of experimentation, followed by new theory to explain the results obtained, and then a new period of experi- mentation, has characterized the development of most of the physical sciences. Unfortunately, meteorology is not in the same position because it is impossible to conduct experiments with controlled variables since no formal method for the inclusion of all the pertinent variables into a single mathematical system has yet been found as a substitute for experimental control. Thus the most powerful techniques which have been used in the development of other physical sciences are not available to the meteorologist at the present time and he must search elsewhere for his method of attack upon this formidable problem. According to a prevalent misconception, statistical methods mean the neglect of root causes and the sub- stitution of shadow for substance. To be sure, statistical methods often lead to useful rules of thumb even when qualitative understanding is absent, but these rules should never be regarded as anything but makeshift. Doubtless the facility with which empirical recipes can be invented, together with a natural human tendency to let well enough alone, has engendered a willingness on the part of some statistical practitioners to content themselves with ersatz. But we do not hold medicine in contempt because of quackery, and it would be fallacious to condemn statistics on account of super- ficiahty. It is perfectly true that at the present time too many meteorologists and statisticians attempt to indulge in an orgy of correlation analysis. Because the processes which they are examining lack the property of being stationary, results a
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Keywords: ., bookcentury1900, bookcollectionbiodivers, booksubjectmeteorology
