. Coast watch. Marine resources; Oceanography; Coastal zone management; Coastal ecology. COASTAL TIDINGS Active Hurricane Season Predicted Be 5" West 0* Eaa 5" prepared for a very active hurricane season. "For the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," says retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and National Atmospheric & Ocean Administration (NO


. Coast watch. Marine resources; Oceanography; Coastal zone management; Coastal ecology. COASTAL TIDINGS Active Hurricane Season Predicted Be 5" West 0* Eaa 5" prepared for a very active hurricane season. "For the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," says retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and National Atmospheric & Ocean Administration (NOAA) administrator. On average, the north Atlantic hurricane season produces 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurncanes. The season runsjune 1 through Nov. 30. In 2005, a record 28 storms hit the region, including 15 hurncanes. Seven of those hurncanes were considered "major," of which a record four hit the United States. "Although NOAA is not forecasting a repeat of last year's season, the potential for hurricanes striking the is high," adds Lautenbacher. Warmer ocean water combined with lower wind shear, weaker easterly trade winds, and a more favorable wind pattern in the mid-levels of the atmosphere are the factors that collectively will favor the development of storms in greater numbers and to greater intensity. Warm water is the energy source for storms, while favorable wind patterns limit the wind shear that can tear apart a storm's building cloud structure. This confluence of conditions in the ocean and atmosphere is strongly related to a climate pattern known as the multi-decadal signal, which has been in place since 1995. Since then, nine of the last 11 hurricane seasons have been above normal, with only two below-normal seasons during the El Nino years of 1997 and 2002. "Whether we face an active hurricane season, like this year, or a below-normal season, the crucial message for every person is the same:


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