. Cross-roads of Life on Earth — Exploring means to meet the 2010 Biodiversity Target. Convention on Biological Diversity Technical Series 31. World Vision (one scenario + six options) I consumption patterns international cooperation socialdevebpment production in/extensiftcation Demand on and trade in agricultural products (GTAP) Land use and environmental development (IMAGE) ~$. impact of climate change and land conversion Socal, economic, and environmental consequences FIGURE 2: The GTAP-IMAGE modelling framework (Van Meijl et al., 2005). Figure 2 shows the methodology of iterating the exte
. Cross-roads of Life on Earth — Exploring means to meet the 2010 Biodiversity Target. Convention on Biological Diversity Technical Series 31. World Vision (one scenario + six options) I consumption patterns international cooperation socialdevebpment production in/extensiftcation Demand on and trade in agricultural products (GTAP) Land use and environmental development (IMAGE) ~$. impact of climate change and land conversion Socal, economic, and environmental consequences FIGURE 2: The GTAP-IMAGE modelling framework (Van Meijl et al., 2005). Figure 2 shows the methodology of iterating the extended version of GTAP with IMAGE. Macro-economic drivers like population and economic growth are used as input in both the GTAP and IMAGE models. In the extended GTAP, model yield depends on an exogenous (autonomous) trend factor (technology, science, knowledge transfer) and also on land prices. This implies the presence of substitution possibilities among production factors. If land gets more expensive, the producer uses less land and more other production factors such as capital. The impact of a higher land price is that land productivity or yields will increase. The exogenous trend of the yield was taken from the FAO study Agriculture towards 2030' (Bruinsma, 2003), where macro- economic prospects were combined with local expert knowledge. However, many studies indicate that change in productivity is enhanced or reduced by other external factors, of which climate change is mentioned most often (Rosenzweig et al, 1995; Parry et al, 2001; Fischer et al, 2002). These studies indicate increasing adverse global impacts on crop yields because of temperature increases above 3-4°C compared to pre-industrial levels. These productivity changes need to be included in a global study. Moreover, the amount of land expansion or land abandonment will have an additional impact on productivity changes, since land productivity is not homogenously distributed. Climate change feedback is in th
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