. The Cost of Policy Inaction: The case of not meeting the 2010 biodiversity target. for more than half of the energy consumption in 2000 (53%), their share drops by 10 percentage points in 2030. In absolute terms, the energy consumption in BRJC and ROW groups roughly doubles until 2030. (Figure ) The oil price in the Baseline reaches a level of 60 US $ per barrel in 2005. After a slow relaxation to 45 $ per barrel around 2020 it climbs, as a result of depletion, to a value of just over 60$ per barrel in 2050. The relatively high price of oil leads to a lower share for oil products in final
. The Cost of Policy Inaction: The case of not meeting the 2010 biodiversity target. for more than half of the energy consumption in 2000 (53%), their share drops by 10 percentage points in 2030. In absolute terms, the energy consumption in BRJC and ROW groups roughly doubles until 2030. (Figure ) The oil price in the Baseline reaches a level of 60 US $ per barrel in 2005. After a slow relaxation to 45 $ per barrel around 2020 it climbs, as a result of depletion, to a value of just over 60$ per barrel in 2050. The relatively high price of oil leads to a lower share for oil products in final energy, partly replaced by modern bio-fuels in the transport sector. Coal use increases slightly, as the price differential with oil and gas makes it attractive for large industrial users to burn coal. This offsets the ongoing trend in the residential and services sector in OECD countries- where coal use is gradually phased out. Natural gas keeps its market share and, as observed in the past, the share of electricity in final energy use keeps increasing to reach 23% in 2030 (from 17% in 2000). All this must be considered again in view of the current oil prices (more than 100 USS per barrel). All sorts of shifts may happen in the short and medium run, such as consumer reactions to fuel prices, slowing down of the phasing out of coal etc. Global final energy use, baseline. J Electricity | Secondary heat J Hydrogen ] Traditional biofuels | Modem biofuels J Natural gas | | Light oil | Heavy oil 1~'| Coal 1970 1980 1990 2000 2020 2030 2040 2050 Figure Final energy use by energy carrier, baseline In the power sector, the main trend of the past decade is replacement of coal as the dominant fuel by natural gas, driven by the low investment costs, high efficiency and favourable environmental performance of combined cycle plants. Exceptions are regions with ample access to relatively low-cost coal and limited access to natural gas supplies, such as China and South Asia. As a result
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