. Collected reprints / Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories [and] Pacific Oceanographic Laboratories. Oceanography Oli 10 Figure 5. Verification of significant uave height time history forecast from spectral and parametria wave models at EB 41 in Belle. Nevertheless, it may be said that both wave forecast models do a creditable job of specifying the maximum sea states likely experienced at the buoy, while the spectral model appears to better forecast the overall time history. At least part of the overall positive bias in the forecasts of both models is due to th
. Collected reprints / Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories [and] Pacific Oceanographic Laboratories. Oceanography Oli 10 Figure 5. Verification of significant uave height time history forecast from spectral and parametria wave models at EB 41 in Belle. Nevertheless, it may be said that both wave forecast models do a creditable job of specifying the maximum sea states likely experienced at the buoy, while the spectral model appears to better forecast the overall time history. At least part of the overall positive bias in the forecasts of both models is due to the unforecast rapid weakening of Belle in the pre-landfall period. The forecast wind errors in the Belle wave forecast has been investigated by perform- ing a detailed post analysis and hindcast of the winds and waves in this storm. Using post an- alysis values for storm input parameters, the wind model calculated winds at EB 41 that com- pared very well with those measured (Figure 6). The wave height predictions from hindcast winds are compared to the EB 41 measure- ments in Figure 7. As expected, the hindcast time histories are closer to the observations than those forecast, but infra-model differ- ences remain. For example, the parametric model hindcast positive bias early in the EB 41 time history implies that the model is overpredicting wave heights in Belle's forward quadrants. This is believed to be a consequence of the calibra- tion of the model against data from slow moving storms and the more wind duration limited char- acteristics of waves in the forward quadrants of fast moving storms. As an example of the more detailed forecast products potentially available from wave models. Figure 8 compares maximum hindcast one-dimensional frequency spectra specified di- rectly by the spectral model, computed from the forecast parameters of the parametric model, and observed at EB 41. Figure 6. Hindcast wind speed and direction at EB 41 in Belle (Cardone and Ross, 1977). 10 9 8 7
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