. Smithsonian miscellaneous collections. for the period being 8£ rather than 8 months. Figure 23shows the computation of the summation forms of the 8^-monthcurve for each month of the year, from 5-month running means ofprecipitation at Eastport. As shown, a rough preliminary curve foreach month is plotted, and from these 12 curves the maxima aretaken for plot A of figure 2^. A curve (in this particular casea straight line) of phase change is drawn on plot A, and accordingto it the final table is prepared, in which the 12 summation formsare shifted for phase as determined in curve A and as indi
. Smithsonian miscellaneous collections. for the period being 8£ rather than 8 months. Figure 23shows the computation of the summation forms of the 8^-monthcurve for each month of the year, from 5-month running means ofprecipitation at Eastport. As shown, a rough preliminary curve foreach month is plotted, and from these 12 curves the maxima aretaken for plot A of figure 2^. A curve (in this particular casea straight line) of phase change is drawn on plot A, and accordingto it the final table is prepared, in which the 12 summation formsare shifted for phase as determined in curve A and as indicated byslanting and upright figures in the final table of figure 23. Sumsof the 8 columns are taken and divided by the total number of cases,51, to give the mean form of the 8§-month curve shown as curve the employment of it later for purposes of prediction, the zerothdates are projected forward from January 15, 1935, and the phase 36 SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS COLLECTIONS VOL. IO4 Eastport. Ppt. SgMonflv*.5-Mo-nth ran mo Fig. 23.—Computation of seasonal phase shifts, and form of curve representingthe effect of 85-month periodicity in solar radiation on precipitation at East-port, Me. Phase shifts, indicated by italics in table at lower right, are governedby the line A. NO. 5 WEATHER AND SOLAR VARIATION—ABBOT 37 changes appropriate to the several months are carefully made byconsulting curve A of figure 23. In figure 24 I give such a synthesis and the event for the 15 years,1930-1944, of the precipitation at Peoria, 111. For the first j\ years,1930-1937, both as to phase and amplitude the fit is rather then until January 1939 there is wide divergence, thoughsomething of the true march is indicated. During 1939 and 1940the fit is rather good again. The prediction comes to lag so farbehind the event in the later years that though the general rise ofprecipitation, 1940-1942, is indicated, the phases are several monthsin error. So the great drop of 1943
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