. Bulletin. Science; Natural history; Natural history. MONARCH BUTTERFLY SURVIVAL. 80 160 TIME (DAYS) 240 Fig. 3. Mathematical model of female butterfly survival versus time with and without the multiple mating resulting from February mating frenzy. Survival is based on chance death and upon lipid energy reserves which are depleted while overwintering (death due to starvation). Lipid depletion rates and fat content used were those observed (Fig. 1). MM = multiple mating, S = single mating, c = mean time of cluster dispersal, m = mean time of milkweed first appearance (from Wells et al. 1992).
. Bulletin. Science; Natural history; Natural history. MONARCH BUTTERFLY SURVIVAL. 80 160 TIME (DAYS) 240 Fig. 3. Mathematical model of female butterfly survival versus time with and without the multiple mating resulting from February mating frenzy. Survival is based on chance death and upon lipid energy reserves which are depleted while overwintering (death due to starvation). Lipid depletion rates and fat content used were those observed (Fig. 1). MM = multiple mating, S = single mating, c = mean time of cluster dispersal, m = mean time of milkweed first appearance (from Wells et al. 1992). gation dispersal (Tuskes and Brower 1978). The continued energy impoverishment of males during this period confirms that nectar foraging is not a primary source of increased female energy reserves. Successful reproduction requires that females disperse to the locations of species of plants suitable for oviposition. Increased life expectancy at this time relates directly to female oviposition success. Over- wintering female fecundity is thus a function of life expectancy after aggregation dispersal (Wells et al. 1992). Female life expectancy has been modeled by Wells et al. (1991) based upon the probability of escaping death due to random misfortune, and the probability of avoiding death from starvation. Using the linear models described, and the as- sumptions that both lipid reserves of individual females entering overwinter ag- gregations and individual female energy gain through mating are normally dis- tributed and independent, evidence exists that time of death due to starvation in the female population is normally distributed. Normal cumulative distribution functions thus describe life expectancy based on energetics with or without mul- tiple mating, given that nectar resources are not available. The only difference is that the mean and variance in life expectancy are increased with multiple mating. Lipid reserves at the time of aggregation degeneration determine female ab
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