Forecasting business conditions . hus concluded, how does the Index prove its value inpractical use? When reasoning over the business outlook, a person needsfacts, upon which he can rely, concerning these fundamentals: 1. What is the situation now as to raw materials? securities? interest rates? business? manufacture and transportation? 2. In which direction is each group moving? 3. How rapidly is it moving? Upon examining the Index, we find it answers these essentialquestions definitely. One secures from it, in other words, acomprehensive grasp of general business conditions, in formavailable
Forecasting business conditions . hus concluded, how does the Index prove its value inpractical use? When reasoning over the business outlook, a person needsfacts, upon which he can rely, concerning these fundamentals: 1. What is the situation now as to raw materials? securities? interest rates? business? manufacture and transportation? 2. In which direction is each group moving? 3. How rapidly is it moving? Upon examining the Index, we find it answers these essentialquestions definitely. One secures from it, in other words, acomprehensive grasp of general business conditions, in formavailable for next chapter explains more specifically why this is so. 48 FORECASTING BUSINESS CONDITIONS AMERICAN BUSINESS ASSOCIATES INDEXIN COMPLETED FORM AMERICAN BUSINESS ASSOCIATES INDEX FUNDAMENTAL STATISTICS COVERING BUSINESS, THE SECURITY MARKET, THE MONEY MARKET, AGRICULTURE AND MINING, MANUFACTURE AND TRANSPORTATION Monthly data. Twenty-nine series. Figures as reported treated statistically for use in forecasting. CURVE {S)—Security Market CURVE {B)—Business CURVE {M)—Money Market TOP CVR-VE—Agriculture and Mining (scale reversed in order) BOTTOM CXSRSfE.—Manufacture and Transportation This Index shows graphically: (1) The position of securities, business, interest rates, raw materials, manufacture and transportation—compared with normal. (2) The trend or direction being taken by each. (3) The speed at which each is moving. This essential summary provides very quickly a comprehensive grasp of general business conditions, up to date, and in form available for forecasting. CHAPTER VIII HOW THE INDEX PROVIDES INSIGHT INTO BUSINESS Where Business Takes a New Trend The grasp of the business situation which the Index providesone becomes more evident upon considering concrete cases are not described as examples of how to forecast,however, a matter reserved for the next chapter, but for show-ing how the Index provides insight into business. In f
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