. Cranberries; : the national cranberry magazine. Cranberries. Mass. Ag. Engineer Norton Issues Weather Based Crop Forecast by John S. Norton The cranberry crop forecast^ based on weather conditions from June 15 through July 20 (the bloom period) is for 990,000 bbls. to be produced in 1976. This value results from use of the formula devised by the author and first used to predict the 1973 crop. The derivation of the formula was described in detail in the August and September, 1973 issues of Cranberries. A review of the 1973 forecast was presented on page 13 of the February 1974 issue of Cranbe
. Cranberries; : the national cranberry magazine. Cranberries. Mass. Ag. Engineer Norton Issues Weather Based Crop Forecast by John S. Norton The cranberry crop forecast^ based on weather conditions from June 15 through July 20 (the bloom period) is for 990,000 bbls. to be produced in 1976. This value results from use of the formula devised by the author and first used to predict the 1973 crop. The derivation of the formula was described in detail in the August and September, 1973 issues of Cranberries. A review of the 1973 forecast was presented on page 13 of the February 1974 issue of Cranberries. Figure 1 is the graph from which the Potential Crop was determined. In effect, sunshine and daytime temperatures and precipitation dur- ing the bloom period are boiled down to a value which I call "; This value, 38 penalty-points, is located along the base line of the graph. A vertical line is drawn from the base line to the upper curve. From the intersec- tion of the vertical line and the upper curve, a horizontal line is drawn to the left hand margin labeled "Potential ; The "Po- tential Crop" in the present case, using 38 penalty-points is 860,000 bbls. This is the crop that would be expected if there were no unusual losses to frost, flood, scald, etc. and if the entire crop were dry-picked. Since water-harvesting results in increased yields over dry-harvesting and, since the graph was developed from yield and weather data from a 25-year period starting in 1949 with water-harvesting being prac- ticed for only the last four years, it is necessary to add the increase due to water-harvesting to the reading from the curve. This increase is estimated to be 40% of the water- harvested volume. My guess at the volume to be water-harvested is 350,000 bbls., so the increase over dry-harvest will be 140,000 bbls. In addition to the adjustment for water-harvest-effect, an adjustment must be made for spring frost losses. These loss
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