. The Canadian field-naturalist. Natural history; Sciences naturelles. 2006 RoNCONi: Predicting Hiki; Oiiincj at On. Sands Ponds ed, observers spent 4 to H hours observing waterlowl at the tailings ponds on most clays thus ensuring some eonsistency in elTort throughout this period. Weather data for wind speed and dircetion, temperature, and rainfall were reeorded from mcteorologieal stations on site, and snowfall events were converted into rain- fall equivalency. Mean temperature is reported here as the daily mean of maximum and minimum tempera- tures. Wave conditions on the ponds and percent
. The Canadian field-naturalist. Natural history; Sciences naturelles. 2006 RoNCONi: Predicting Hiki; Oiiincj at On. Sands Ponds ed, observers spent 4 to H hours observing waterlowl at the tailings ponds on most clays thus ensuring some eonsistency in elTort throughout this period. Weather data for wind speed and dircetion, temperature, and rainfall were reeorded from mcteorologieal stations on site, and snowfall events were converted into rain- fall equivalency. Mean temperature is reported here as the daily mean of maximum and minimum tempera- tures. Wave conditions on the ponds and percent cloud cover were recorded by observers. All occurrences of oiled birds are reported (below); however, analyses of weather effects were conducted only on oiled birds that were still alive when found, an assumption that those birds became oiled either the day they were found or the previous night. For analysis by logistic regression, oiled birds were the dependent variable (1 = days with oiled birds; 0 = days with no oiled birds). Days when observers were not present on site were excluded from analyses. Weather data were the independent variables (wind, temperature, precipitation, wave conditions, % cloud cover). Except for wave conditions, analyses of weather effects were assessed for three time periods: date of oiled bird finding, one day prior ( previous 24 hour conditions), and two days prior ( previous 24-48 hour conditions). Wave condition was only analyzed for the first two time periods since it was considered likely that rough water effects would not persist for as long as two days. Logistic regression analysis (SPSS ) was used to assess weather effects and to build a model for pre- dicting their effects on the probability of birds being oiled. Owing to small sample sizes of data from a single season, a liberal alpha value () was used for logis- tic regression analysis. Tests were conducted for inter-. o Lakes Surveyed â¡ Muskeg River Mine @ Fort McMurra
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