The economics of petroleum . of petroleum just outlined serve to explain the remarkable riseof production in this country from less than one million barrels in1860 to 443 miUion barrels in 1920. Fig. 19 depicts on a ratio scalethe steep slope of the production curve over the past sixty years,from which it is apparent that the output has roughly doubled everyten years. A closer analysis of this curve reveals the fact that itstrend from 1860-1880 averages 13 per cent a year; from 1880-1900,6 per cent annually; and from 1900-1920, 10 per cent yearly.^The smoothness of the curve during the past de
The economics of petroleum . of petroleum just outlined serve to explain the remarkable riseof production in this country from less than one million barrels in1860 to 443 miUion barrels in 1920. Fig. 19 depicts on a ratio scalethe steep slope of the production curve over the past sixty years,from which it is apparent that the output has roughly doubled everyten years. A closer analysis of this curve reveals the fact that itstrend from 1860-1880 averages 13 per cent a year; from 1880-1900,6 per cent annually; and from 1900-1920, 10 per cent yearly.^The smoothness of the curve during the past decade, as comparedwith previous decades or production curves of other materials, is 1 Determined graphically by fitting straight lines by inspection to the threeportions of the curve. 48 COMPARISON WITH GROWTH OF COUNTRY 49 worthy of note as reflecting close conformity to a geometric pro-gression. Comparison with Growth of Country.—The production of crudepetroleum has, of course, increased far more rapidly than population,. Fig. 19.—Growth in the production of crude petroleum in the United States,by years, 1860-1920, compared with the output of pig iron, increase in popu-lation, and other indices. as illustrated by Fig. 19 which measures the rate of growth of 1902 the per capita production of petroleum was 1 barrel, whileby 1920 this ratio had increased to barrels. In this respect 50 TREND OF OIL PRODUCTION petroleum shares distinction with most of the other minerals, ascontrasted with agricultural products which display rates of growthroughly parallel to the population increase. Of greater significance, however, is a comparison with the indus-trial growth of the country. Such a comparison is afforded byplotting pig iron production against crude petroleum output, asgiven in Fig. 19. An extensive investigation of the physical produc-tion of the United States by E. E. Day of the Harvard UniversityCommittee on Economic Research has shown that pig iron produc-tion is
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