Smithsonian miscellaneous collections . to December, all adusted to a common phase andaveraged. Figure 17 shows the same for sunspot numbers <20. Itwill be seen that the thick-lined mean curves for sunspot numbers==c 20 are similar in form, but differ in phase, and have ranges ofabout l£° F. Figure 18 is a synthetic prediction, 50 years in advance, of the tem-perature of Washington, 1950 to 1952, based on 20 regular periodic!- 30 SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS COLLECTIONS VOL. 122 ties determined from monthly records of the years 1854 to 1939, cen-tering about 1900. The prediction is in the thin
Smithsonian miscellaneous collections . to December, all adusted to a common phase andaveraged. Figure 17 shows the same for sunspot numbers <20. Itwill be seen that the thick-lined mean curves for sunspot numbers==c 20 are similar in form, but differ in phase, and have ranges ofabout l£° F. Figure 18 is a synthetic prediction, 50 years in advance, of the tem-perature of Washington, 1950 to 1952, based on 20 regular periodic!- 30 SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS COLLECTIONS VOL. 122 ties determined from monthly records of the years 1854 to 1939, cen-tering about 1900. The prediction is in the thin line. The thick line isthe event. The two scales of ordinates, separated 2° F., indicate, asexpected, that Washington is now warmer than 50 years ago. I shouldadd that all the data are smoothed by 5-month running means. Thecoefficient of correlation between forecast and event is ± Figure 19 shows the 45^-month period, computed as a straight meanof all repetitions of that period, in precipitation records at Albany. 1950 Fig. 18.—Synthetic prediction, 50 years in advance of mean basis, and verificationon Washington temperature. Computed from temperature records 1854 to 1939 with20 regular periodicities, all integral submultiples of 22! years. Correlation ± percent. Forecast, lighter curve, right-hand scale. Event, heavy curve, left-hand scale. Temperatures Fahr., 5-month running means. over the interval of 90 years, 1850 to 1939. It carries several integrallyrelated shorter periods on its back. The curves a and c represent theyears 1850 to 1899, and 1900 to 1939, respectively. Being similar, andin the same phase, their average, b, is used in what follows. With-drawing the average period of 452^-3 months, curve d from it the average period 45^-f-4 months, curve e re-sults. Withdrawing from it the average period 45^-^5 months, curve/ results. Withdrawing from it the average period 45^-^-2 months,curve g results. The smo
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