. Price projections for selected grades of Douglas-fir, coast hem- fir, inland hem-fir, and ponderosa pine lumber. Douglas fir United States; Ponderosa pine United States; Lumber Prices United States; Forests and forestry Economic aspects United States. 700 -i 600 500 w | 400 o â o CJ _ _ _ ® 300 o 200 100. - PLUMWW âHFC ALGRD PLUMWE âZPINE II I I I I I I I | II ! I M I I I | I I I ! I I I I I | I M I II M I | ! I I I I I I I I | I I I I I I I I I | 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2040 Figure 5âSoftwood lumber prices by year: PLUMWW = west-side average price all species, all grades; HFC ALGRD =
. Price projections for selected grades of Douglas-fir, coast hem- fir, inland hem-fir, and ponderosa pine lumber. Douglas fir United States; Ponderosa pine United States; Lumber Prices United States; Forests and forestry Economic aspects United States. 700 -i 600 500 w | 400 o â o CJ _ _ _ ® 300 o 200 100. - PLUMWW âHFC ALGRD PLUMWE âZPINE II I I I I I I I | II ! I M I I I | I I I ! I I I I I | I M I II M I | ! I I I I I I I I | I I I I I I I I I | 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2040 Figure 5âSoftwood lumber prices by year: PLUMWW = west-side average price all species, all grades; HFC ALGRD = hem-fir coast average price, all grades except for C select; PLUMWE = east-side average price all species, all grade; ZPINE = average price for selected grades of ponderosa pine. Results Price projections by species and grades are shown in table 8. The results mostly are consistent with the various assumptions and estimated relations. One exception is the projections for C select Douglas-fir lumber. These projections are somewhat low relative to the recent (since 1986) increase in export clear prices, which comprise about 10 percent of the C select grade. The impact of recent price increases in the export market have reduced the explanatory and predictive ability of the general price relation for C selects. The results support the notion that increasing scarcity of high-quality material will result in higher prices. In general, the relative price position for each grade remains unchanged. The historically highest priced grades remain so in the future; in general, they show greater price increases but lower rates of price growth. Price arbitrage and substitution between products, however, act to limit the extent that prices for selected species and grades can increase. The fact that prices of higher priced items generally increase more than lower priced items is significant to forest land management decisions, because it is the dollar difference, not the percentage differ
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